What if the public had kept it?

The 2008 bailout stakes: realized vs a retained market sleeve

Market-return haircut on the "kept-it" sleeve 0% haircut · full market return

Disbursed—

Actually realized—

"Kept-it" value today—

Upside forfeited—

Each firm: what Treasury realized (sold 2009–2014) vs the same proceeds reinvested in the S&P 500 to 2026-06-12. Illustrative counterfactual, not a causal estimate; price index understates total return. Drag the haircut to stress a lower market path.

Sources: USAspending.gov (SpaceX awards, identified major contracts); U.S. Treasury TARP reports & SIGTARP (illustrative, rounded); FCC RDOF orders; Good Jobs First. S&P 500 via Yahoo Finance. See SOURCES.md.