How to read it: each dot is one risk. It sits further right the more likely it is, and higher up the more damage it would do. The shaded background runs from calm (bottom-left) to dangerous (top-right), so the risks that matter most are the big dots in the upper-right. Severity is just likelihood × impact, from 1 to 25. The scores are our own judgement, not market data — the table below gives the reasoning for each.

Sources: SpaceX S-1 & launch-week reporting; Yahoo Finance live tape. Multiples/scores are analyst assumptions — see SOURCES.md & the methods appendix.