Live SPCX tracker & prediction scorecard

Updated 2026-07-27 · day 45 · the 'living' part of the analysis

SPCX last—

vs $135 IPO—

Days since IPO—

Calls pending—

Horizon	Prediction	Point [band]	Status
3 months	SPCX 3-month total return relative to the Nasdaq-100	-8% [-25,+10]	pending
12 months	SPCX 12-month total return relative to the Nasdaq-100	-15% [-45,+20]	pending
~180 days	Sign of the abnormal return in the [-2,+5] window around the 180-day lockup expiry	-6% [-15,+2]	pending
1 month	Mean CAR for listed space/satellite peers over the month after the debut	+2% [-4,+8]	pending

Predictions frozen at publish; scored weekly by the pipeline. Dotted lines = scenario-DCF fair value per share (enterprise value ÷ shares) — reference levels, not price forecasts.

Sources: SpaceX S-1 & launch-week reporting; Yahoo Finance live tape. Multiples/scores are analyst assumptions — see SOURCES.md & the methods appendix.